Rev. Danny Fisher

In a recent post, I talked a bit about the climate crisis. In quite a few other posts, I talked about the genocide in Darfur. Unfortunately, as it turns out, there is much more to say about these two issues–these two inexorably connected issues.

The conflict in Darfur has been driven by climate change and environmental degradation, which threaten to trigger a succession of new wars across Africa unless more is done to contain the damage, according to a [U.N. Environment Programme (U.N.E.P.)] report published yesterday.

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With rainfall down by up to 30% over 40 years and the Sahara advancing by well over a mile every year, tensions between farmers and herders over disappearing pasture and evaporating water holes threaten to reignite the half-century war between north and south Sudan, held at bay by a precarious 2005 peace accord.

[...]

The U.N.E.P. investigation into links between climate and conflict in Sudan predicts that the impact of climate change on stability is likely to go far beyond its borders…“It illustrates and demonstrates what is increasingly becoming a global concern,” said Achim Steiner, U.N.E.P.’s executive director. “It doesn’t take a genius to work out that as the desert moves southwards there is a physical limit to what [ecological] systems can sustain, and so you get one group displacing another.”

He also pointed to incipient conflicts in Chad “at least in part associated with environmental changes”, and to growing tensions in southern Africa fuelled by droughts and flooding.

The information in U.N.E.P.’s report is especially important in that it underscores a critical point made by U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon:

Almost invariably, we discuss Darfur in a convenient military and political shorthand–an ethnic conflict pitting Arab militias against black rebels and farmers. Look to its roots, though, and you discover a more complex dynamic. Amid the diverse social and political causes, the Darfur conflict began as an ecological crisis, arising at least in part from climate change.

U.N.E.P.’s report does much to both unpack the Secretary-General’s statement and give us a sense of the region’s future.

The U.N.E.P. study suggests the true genesis of the conflict pre-dates 2003 and is to be found in failing rains and creeping desertification. It found that:

• The desert in northern Sudan has advanced southwards by 60 miles over the past 40 years;
  
• Rainfall has dropped by 16%-30%;
  
• Climate models for the region suggest a rise of between 0.5C and 1.5C between 2030 and 2060;
  
• Yields in the local staple, sorghum, could drop by 70%.
  In turn, the Darfur conflict has exacerbated Sudan’s environmental degradation, forcing more than two million people into refugee camps. Deforestation has been accelerated while underground aquifers are being drained.

Worse still, the report suggests that unless both the changing climate and degraded environment are properly addressed, the situation can only deteriorate further.

A peace deal signed last year by rebels and the Khartoum government broke down, but this month President Omar al-Bashir said he would accept the deployment of a joint U.N. and African Union force. He has reneged on similar pledges, but U.N. diplomats are hopeful this one will stick. However, the U.N.E.P. report warns that no peace will last without sustained investment in containing environmental damage and adapting to climate change. Mr. Steiner said: “Simply to return people to the situation there were in before is a high-risk strategy.”