Rev. Danny Fisher

The last couple of weeks have seen more grim forecasts about the effects of global warming in the headlines.

Last week, Reuters covered a recent International Institute for Strategic Studies report which states that the effects of climate change “could have global security implications on a par with nuclear war unless urgent action is taken.”

…[The] security think-tank said global warming would hit crop yields and water availability everywhere, causing great human suffering and leading to regional strife.

While everyone had now started to recognize the threat posed by climate change, no one was taking effective leadership to tackle it and no one could tell precisely when and where it would hit hardest, it added.

“The most recent international moves towards combating global warming represent a recognition…that if the emission of greenhouse gases…is allowed to continue unchecked, the effects will be catastrophic–on the level of nuclear war,” the I.I.S.S. report said.

“Even if the international community succeeds in adopting comprehensive and effective measures to mitigate climate change, there will still be unavoidable impacts from global warming on the environment, economies and human security,” it added.

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The I.I.S.S. report said the effects would cause a host of problems including rising sea levels, forced migration, freak storms, droughts, floods, extinctions, wildfires, disease epidemics, crop failures and famines.

The impact was already being felt–particularly in conflicts in Kenya and Sudan–and more was expected in places from Asia to Latin America as dwindling resources led to competition between haves and have nots.

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The report, an annual survey of the impact of world events on global security, said conflicts and state collapses due to climate change would reduce the world’s ability to tackle the causes and to reduce the effects of global warming.

State failures would increase the gap between rich and poor and heighten racial and ethnic tensions which in turn would produce fertile breeding grounds for more conflict.

Urban areas would not be exempt from the fallout as falling crop yields due to reduced water and rising temperatures would push food prices higher, I.I.S.S. said.

Overall, it said 65 countries were likely to lose over 15 percent of their agricultural output by 2100 at a time when the world’s population was expected to head from six billion now to nine billion people.

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Then, yesterday, the Agence France-Presse reported on unsettling conclusions drawn at the recent conference of the American Society for Microbiology.

Global warming likely will lead to an increase in infectious disease around the world, as viruses, microbes and the agents that spread them flourish…according to researchers at a meeting of the American Society for Microbiology.

“Years ago we probably would not be talking about this topic,” said Anthony McMichael, lead scientist on a study entitled “The Impact of Climate Change on Human Health.”

“Human-induced climate change … is proceeding a little bit faster than we would have expected,” said McMichael, an epidemiologist at the University of Canberra in Australia.

Experts cite West Nile virus as a disease whose spread has been facilitated by global warming.

Native to Africa, West Nile can be found today throughout Canada and the United States, according to McMichael, who explained that a rise in North American temperatures since 1999 has allowed non-native mosquitoes that transmit the virus to thrive.

Jim Sliwa, spokesman for the American Society for Microbiology, underscored the potential health crisis posed by a rise in world temperatures.

“We know that climate change is going to change the pattern of infectious diseases,” said Sliwa at the conference, which, with some 12,000 physicians and scientists, is billed as the world’s biggest on disease-causing microbes.

For example, he said, “the malaria line in mountainous regions will continue to rise,” as global average temperature increases.

McMichael also predicted a rise in the incidence of “year-round influenza” in the tropics.

Near the equator, he said “there is no influenza season, so as the temperature rises the tropical areas expand and we’ll get more year-round influenza.”

The A.S.M.’s report speculates that global warming may actually curb particular diseases in other parts of the world, but this is hardly cause for celebration: malaria may decline in West Africa, for example, if rainfall continues to decline in the region–making things even more hot and dry than they already are.

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On the brighter side of things, Reuters also ran an article yesterday about the possibility of this year’s Nobel Peace Prize going to a climate campaigner. Such a victory would undoubtedly galvanize the environmental movement.

[Former Norwegian environment minister Boerge Brende] and another Norwegian parliamentarian nominated [former Vice President Al Gore] for his Oscar-winning movie about climate change An Inconvenient Truth and [Inuit activist Sheila Watt-Cloutier], who has highlighted the plight of indigenous cultures facing a quickening Arctic thaw.

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Others suggested candidates include the U.N. Climate Panel and its leader, Rajendra Pachauri. The panel said this year that it was more than 90 percent likely that mankind’s activities were the main cause of warming in the past 50 years.

And Yvo de Boer, the U.N.’s top climate change official, said that U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon could be a good candidate, or German Chancellor Angela Merkel for “her leadership role in Europe” in confronting climate change.

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Kenya’s Wangari Maathai won the 2004 peace prize for her campaign to plant 30 million trees across Africa, the first Nobel for an environmental campaigner. [Norwegian Nobel Institute director Geir Lundestad] declined to say whether fighting climate change could justify a peace prize.

For what it’s worth, I’d like to lend my voice to the chorus of people suggesting that the prize go to an environmental activist. In particular, I think that Vice President Gore’s distinguished, thirty-year effort to raise awareness about our planet’s environmental crises warrants recognition of this kind. The man is a hero.

The Nobel Peace Prize will be awarded October 12th.