Rev. Danny Fisher

Here’s what’s happening in Myanmar right now, courtesy of the Associated Press:

As many as 100,000 protesters led by a phalanx of barefoot monks marched Monday in the most powerful show of strength yet from a movement that has grown in a week from faltering demonstrations to one rivaling the failed 1988 pro-democracy uprising.

[...]

Marching for more than five hours and over at least 12 miles, a last hard-core group of more than 1,000 maroon-robed Buddhist monks and 400 sympathizers finished by walking up to an intersection where police blocked access to the street where democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi is under house arrest.

Making no effort to push past, the marchers chanted a Buddhist prayer with the words “May there be peace,” and then dispersed. About 500 onlookers cheered the act of defiance, as 100 riot police with helmets and shield stared stonily ahead.

Some participants said there were several hundred thousand marchers in their ranks, but an international aid agency official with employees monitoring the crowd estimated said the size was well over 50,000 and approaching 100,000.

In addition, the monks protesting received support from His Holiness the 14th Dalai Lama of Tibet:

I extend my support and solidarity with the recent peaceful movement for democracy in Burma.

I fully support their call for freedom and democracy and take this opportunity to appeal to freedom-loving people all over the world to support such non-violent movements.

[...]

As a Buddist monk, I am appealing to the members of the military regime who believe in Buddhism to act in accordance with the sacred dharma in the spirit of compassion and non-violence.

I pray for the success of this peaceful movement and the early release of fellow Nobel Peace laureate Aung San Suu Kyi.

In spite of all this good news, however, the A.P. reports that the junta–which is currently stronger than it has ever been–has given the monks a foreboding ultimatum.

Hours after the protest ended peacefully, Myanmar’s military government broadcast an ominous warning, telling senior Buddhist clerics that unless they restrained their juniors, the government would take action on its own against those it said were instigated by the regime’s domestic and foreign enemies.

[...]

In the broadcast, [Brig. Gen. Thura Myint Maung, who is the religious affairs minister] said the protesting monks represented just 2 percent of the country’s total, but were instigated to cause trouble by the opposition National League for Democracy party, the 88 Generation Students activist group, and agitators from the West, including foreign media.

But the statement explicitly linked the protesting monks to groups the government had long treated as enemies, subject to arbitrary detention.

The military’s continued restraint seems somewhat likely, though, given a number of signifcant factors.

The usually iron-fisted junta has so far kept minimal security at the latest wave of protests, and diplomats and analysts said Myanmar’s military rulers were showing the unexpected restraint because of pressure from the country’s key trading partner and diplomatic ally, China. The government is also aware that any abuse of the monks could rouse widespread anger in this devout, predominantly Buddhist nation.

[...]

A Southeast Asian diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity as a matter of protocol, said the regime is under pressure from China to avoid a crackdown just as its larger neighbor has pressured it to speed up other democratic changes.

“Everyone knows that China is the major supporter of the junta so if government takes any action it will affect the image of China,” the diplomat told The Associated Press.

China, which is counting on Myanmar’s vast oil and gas reserves to help fuel its booming economy, earlier this year blocked a U.N. Security Council criticizing Myanmar’s rights record, saying it was not the right forum.

But at the same time, it has employed quiet diplomacy and subtle public pressure on the regime, urging it to move toward inclusive democracy.

“China is very eager to have a peaceful Burma in order to complete roads and railroads, to develop mines and finish assimilating the country under its economic control,” said Josef Silverstein, a political scientist and author of several books on Myanmar.